The Changing of the Guard in the NBA
Discussing the massive power shift in basketball
I’ll admit I’m fairly late in providing my commentary on the opening round of the NBA playoffs, but eventually I decided to wait for some of these series to finish and effectively strengthen the narrative I was planning on pushing, because I want what is convenient.
But here’s what I’ve seen and what I’ve learned so far: the future is here, and the aging legends I grew up watching are no longer the royalty of the league.
Kevin Durant and the Suns were completely destroyed and quickly swept by the Timberwolves, led by their 22-year-old rising superstar Anthony Edwards. Durant can still get his buckets, but Phoenix was thoroughly outplayed by Minnesota’s youthful squad (in rebounding and defensive effort, especially), and the Suns do not seem remotely close to competing for a championship anytime soon.
The Lakers have once again been bested by the Nuggets, who evidently possess their kryptonite. It was a gentlemen’s sweep (4-1) this time around, and the Lakers’ Game 4 victory was their only win in their last 13 games against Denver. LeBron and Anthony Davis did all they could, but the Nuggets’ perfectly-structured starting lineup (average age ~28) continually exhausted the Lakers in the second half of games and consistently went on massive runs to take the lead in the dying moments.
The Clippers are supposedly “loaded” with four of the best players from the 2010s, but their poor health and subsequent lack of chemistry on the court together has soiled their title-contending playoff runs year after year. I’ll hold off on predicting their demise to the Mavericks (series tied 2-2 right now), because Dallas has plenty of problems of their own. But if the Clips are to advance, I’m giving them zero chance of beating Oklahoma City’s young superteam (average age ~24, weighted by playing time) in the second round.
The Warriors, who had firmly stamped themselves as an all-time great dynasty in the late 2010s, are watching this year’s playoffs from Cancun after they were waxed in the play-in game, thanks in large part to an all-time stinker from Klay Thompson. Steph Curry still has a strong scoring ability as the greatest shooter of all time, but the lack of support from Thompson and Draymond Green has made his burden impossibly overwhelming.
This trend is not as obvious in the Eastern Conference, but that’s because hardly any of those playoff teams have hung on to aging stars and committed huge money to guys on the wrong side of 30… except the Bucks. I’ll give them a slight pass because Giannis has not been healthy in recent weeks, but their heavy investment in Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton gives them a bleak future outlook, to say the least.
If you needed another sign of the times: this is the first season since 2005(!!) that one of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, or Steph Curry has not played in the second round of the playoffs.
It’s a humbling reality for these Hall of Famers, and for myself as well. I grew up watching these legends dominate the basketball world for 15+ years, but now we’re all getting old.
The NBA MVP will be announced within the next week or two, and it’s sure to be one of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (25y/o) or Luka Doncic (25y/o) receiving the honor for the first time, or Nikola Jokic (29y/o) potentially winning the award for the third time in four years.
One might say it’s a make/miss league; winning in the NBA simply boils down to having certified bucket-getters to help win all of these tightly-contested playoff games. That might be true, but I’d contend it’s also an athlete’s league. The Suns had no way of stopping the super-explosive Anthony Edwards, and the Wolves’ young role players totally exhausted Durant, Beal, and Booker on both sides of the court. It was a similar story for LeBron, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers; their elite scoring numbers were insufficient against the faster, stronger, and more energetic Nuggets’ squad.
There is a balance, of course. Veteran leadership and playoff experience is incredibly valuable, and historically, the young guns usually have to “wait their turn” to compete for a title. The best players from the 2010s have tried to cling on to their crowns, and they’ve been decently successful in fending off this next generation (Warriors against the Celtics in 2022, Lakers against the Heat in 2020, and even the very-old Spurs against LeBron’s Heat in 2014).
But I believe their time has come and gone, and they must concede defeat.
Curry, Durant, and James likely all have two, three, or maybe four more years left before retiring, and I don’t see any of them competing for a title before they ride off into the sunset. There might be one last-ditch effort to construct a super-team of aging veterans and pray they miraculously figure out how to build chemistry and win a championship in a two-year window, but that generally doesn’t work.
All of the young, explosive squads still competing for the 2024 NBA title were a result of excellent drafting and the development of a few standout players, and only then going and getting that one missing piece via trade/free agency.
The Thunder tried the first method; hold on to Russell Westbrook and bring in another expensive superstar, Paul George, in 2017. This didn’t work, so they decided to start a full rebuild by trading George for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a plethora of draft picks. They’ve since hit two home-run draft picks with Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, and their young roster is a lock to contend in the West for the next decade.
The Wolves stunk for a good while, and they were rewarded with two #1 overall picks in a span of five years… and they didn’t miss. The continued development of Karl Anthony-Towns and Anthony Edwards, along with the contributions of impressive role players Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Naz Reid has created a stellar core of young talent in Minnesota. The big commitment to trade for 3x Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert initially seemed questionable, but he’s been excellent thus far, and he might prove to be the final missing piece to the Wolves’ championship puzzle.
The Celtics and Nuggets are a little further along this path than the teams mentioned above and are more likely to reach the Finals this year, but their strategies were the same.
Boston drafted All-Stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum in back-to-back years (2016 and 2017), and have since been trying to construct the ideal supporting cast of talent around them. They’ve tried to remain somewhat youthful, and their recent acquisitions Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick White have been greatly effective.
The Nuggets organization has been wildly successful in drafting talent, and their massive hits on Jokic, Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. (2014, 2016, and 2018, respectively) created a perfect nucleus for their current success. Denver then made two excellent trades for Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in 2021 and 2022, and they’ve since become the best team in the NBA.
And while I’m still a bit sad about my Lakers getting bounced and LeBron’s career gradually coming to a close (eventually, right?), this new wave of talent is refreshing.
There were definitely times I grew tired of seeing LeBron’s Cavaliers face off against Steph Curry’s Warriors year after year, and the inevitability of it all made the entire regular season seem useless and redundant. This new era of NBA basketball is exciting, and, at least for right now, there isn’t an egregious gap in the hierarchy of basketball greatness. The Nuggets might be flirting with that level of dominance, but I believe the Wolves and (potentially) the Thunder will give them a serious test.
The old guys have been forced to clear out and make room for the rising superstars, and the new age is here. I, for one, welcome this new basketball landscape, but I also feel the need to show my appreciation for the great hoopers that ran the league for most of my childhood and then some.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Toolshed to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.