Ry's officially unofficial 2023-24 NFL Awards

After watching Lamar Jackson completely dominate against supposedly “tough tests” in the 49ers and Dolphins in recent weeks, help the Ravens secure the best record in the league, and all but lock up the MVP award, I’ve been inspired to create my own awards show. Some of these honors will overlap with the real, recognizable awards presented to the NFL’s best players on February 8, and some of them will be quite silly and definitely not real.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens.

Not much needs to be said here, but damn it is fun to watch Lamar Jackson play football. No team has looked better than the Ravens in the second half of the season, and no unit has been more effective than the Jackson-led Ravens’ offense. 

The plays during which Lamar scrambles around like he’s in a Backyard Football video game, breaks the ankles of multiple defenders, and takes off for a 30-yard gain will always be incredibly entertaining. But this year, more importantly, he’s quelled any doubt of his ability as a passer. In three of the Ravens’ biggest games of the season (Lions, Niners, Dolphins), Jackson has used his legs sparingly (38.6 rush yds/game), and instead proved to be a lethal pocket passer. In those three games against some of the (alleged) best teams in the NFL, Jackson threw for a combined 910 yards, 10 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 75% completion rate. Simply absurd. 

Lamar Jackson has been subject to unfounded criticism and doubt throughout his career, starting with the 2018 NFL Draft in which the first 31 teams (including the Ravens!) passed up an opportunity to select him. He's continued to prove all of his naysayers wrong, and he now has his best opportunity to win a Super Bowl with a strong supporting cast this year. I’m truly happy to see Lamar succeed, and no one is more deserving of the 2023 MVP award. With his current odds sitting at -10000, he's likely to join a short, prestigious list of players with multiple MVPs. “Not bad for a running back.”

LEAST VALUABLE PLAYER: Kadarius Toney, WR, Kansas City Chiefs.

Realistically, the least valuable player is probably a backup long-snapper or practice squad player that simply doesn’t see the field. But I wanted to make an award for a player that consistently sees the field... despite consistently making a negative impact on the field. Would that make Kadarius Toney the Most Devaluable Player? Is that a word? 

I know there's a handful of KC fans in my audience, and I think they would agree Toney has been actively losing games for the Chiefs. 

One of the two most egregious efforts from his season was the Chiefs' season-opener against the Lions. Toney was targeted five times and finished with one reception, one (1) receiving yard, and two drops, one of which was intercepted and returned for a touchdown (the Chiefs lost the game by one point). 

I usually don't pay mind to a lot of the newer advanced metrics, mainly because I don't know what the hell I'm looking at, but there was one particularly fascinating statistic from this game that encapsulated Toney's shambolic performance: Expected Points Added per Target. Essentially, how likely is an offense to score when targeting a specific receiver? I assume a solid number would be anything above 1.0 EPA/target (1 TD = 6 points, 6 points/6 targets = 1.0 EPA/target) , and an elite touchdown scorer like Travis Kelce has probably hovered closer to 2.0 for most of his career. One touchdown-worthy play per three targets, roughly. 

Kadarius Toney inconceivably finished Week 1 with an EPA/target of -2.19. Yes, NEGATIVE two. Meaning for every three times Toney was targeted, the Lions' defense was expected to score a touchdown. That's almost impossibly bad.

The other notable instance Toney snatched defeat from the jaws of victory was against the Bills in Week 14. The Chiefs were trailing by three points and driving down the field late in the fourth quarter, desperately fighting to tie or win this heated AFC battle. In what was one of the most incredible plays that never counted, Patrick Mahomes rocketed a pass down the middle to Travis Kelce, who then evaded a few defenders before tossing a backwards pass across the field to Kadarius Toney for an easy touchdown. Unfortunately, the play was called back for an offsides penalty and upon review, the culprit was Toney, of course. The Chiefs' drive stalled after the penalty, and they would lose the game 20-17. Chiefs players and coaches were fuming about the call, justifiably upset that a game could be decided on such an uncommon and seemingly disadvantageous foul -- offsides penalties on the offense are incredibly rare. The Chiefs refused to believe any player could do something this stupid, pretty much. But Toney was lined up a full yard in front of the ball, and Chiefs' players eventually retracted their initial anger. His blatant error left the officials no choice but to do their job, regardless of the game scenario.

These are just two instances in which Kadarius Toney singlehandedly lost a game for the Chiefs (who are currently 10-6 and would have loved a chance to have the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, I imagine). I'm sure KC fans, Andy Reid, or Mahomes could rattle off plenty of other times in which Toney's play was wildly detrimental to the team's success. 

COACH OF THE YEAR: Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts.

Kevin Stefanski, the Browns' head coach, is expected to win the award for finding ways to win despite his roster being riddled with injuries, but my personal bias as a Colts fan is glaringly obvious, and Shane Steichen's similar ability to make something out of nothing has been amazing.

Going into this season, expectations were reasonably low for a first-year head coach and the Colts' inexperienced rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson (oddsmakers gave them a 6.5 projected win total). Expectations were then lowered again when it was unclear if All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor would return to the team at all, holding out for a new contract. And expectations were lowered still when it was announced Anthony Richardson would need season-ending shoulder surgery just four games into his pro career. 

Steichen and the Colts have continued to find ways to win games and have shattered that projected win total (currently 9-7 at the time I’m writing this). Sometimes it was an ugly, ground-and-pound offensive scheme, helping them beat the league-leading Baltimore Ravens early in the season. Another week, it was the well-disciplined defense picking up the offense’s slack and scoring two pick-sixes against the Panthers. Just a few weeks later, the Colts’ special teams unit stole the show with two blocked punts in a crucial divisional win against the Titans. The only consistency in the Colts’ season has been its inconsistency, and Steichen is finding game-changers from every corner of the depth chart.

Winning the division is unlikely, but the Colts still have a great chance to make the playoffs at 10-7: they host the Texans in a primetime home game, win-and-in scenario in Week 18. Perhaps we'll revisit if the Colts have an all-time collapse on Saturday like they have done in years past, but for now, Steichen has my imaginary vote. 

WORST COACH OF THE YEAR: Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

The rest of the league’s bottom-feeders are generally devoid of decent players. The Chargers, however, have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL: an elite young quarterback in Justin Herbert, a superstar WR1 in Keenan Allen, and plenty of other Pro Bowl-level talent on both sides of the ball. Oddsmakers set their projected win total at 9.5 before the season, and Staley has made sure the Chargers will finish nowhere near that line, likely ending the season 5-12.

A strong indicator of effective coaching is a team's record in one-score games (games decided by 8 points or fewer); when both teams are fairly evenly matched on Any Given Sunday, what will the head coach do to give his team the edge? Well, the Chargers are 3-7 in one-score games. Even worse, Staley was hired as a defensive-minded head coach, having served as an effective defensive coordinator and assistant coach in previous roles... and the Chargers have a bottom-five defense in the league.

Staley was on the hot seat fairly quickly after a handful of embarrassing midseason losses, but he was perhaps given one last chance to turn it around after a brutal 24-7 loss at home against the Broncos, during which Justin Herbert suffered a season-ending injury. Four days later, in a Thursday Night battle against the lowly Raiders, Staley led the Chargers to one of their worst losses in franchise history, 63-21. He was fired the next day, or maybe before they even got on the plane to take their sorry asses home. Still, the damage had been done. 

There's been a clear trend with teams trying to capitalize on a quarterback's reasonably-affordable rookie contract and using the extra cap space to build a Super Bowl-contending roster in that five-year window (recent examples: Mahomes and the Chiefs, Hurts and the Eagles, Burrow and the Bengals). It's certainly a difficult task, but no team or coach has failed harder than the Chargers and Brandon Staley. The talent, at least on paper, is there, and yet the Chargers keep finding new, uniquely stupid ways to lose close games. Sadly, that initial Super Bowl window has closed for Herbert, and the Chargers are now left with a difficult decision: pay him and endure a lengthy rebuilding process with limited salary cap space, or trade away the franchise cornerstone.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins.

This is another one where I disagree with the anticipated popular vote, Christian McCaffrey. 

Surprisingly enough, the best argument in favor of Hill is evident in the brief stints he's missed because of injury. The Dolphins offense looks completely different without Hill on the field; teams spend the entire week of practice (unsuccessfully) game-planning for Hill, and they must constantly worry about where he is on every single play. When he's out there maintaining his reputation as the fastest player in the league, other receivers benefit from the lack of attention in pass coverage, and the run game is allowed ample space with opposing secondaries giving Tyreek a 15+ yard cushion before the ball is snapped. 

Hill was on pace to break the single-season receiving record before he tweaked his ankle, and even though it's unlikely he reaches 2,000 receiving yards now, I believe he still deserves this OPOY recognition. My argument against McCaffrey is fairly simple: that Niners' offense is beyond loaded with talent, and it's hard to pinpoint the league's best offensive player in an offense where the sum of their parts is so great. 

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Myles Garrett, EDGE, Cleveland Browns.

This is where I'd contend the Browns have become a dark-horse Super Bowl contender because of their incredible defense led by Garrett, and less because of Kevin Stefanski's coaching. 

The Browns were projected 9.5 wins before the season. They were expected to be an above-average team, but this was before Deshaun Watson and Nick Chubb suffered season-ending injuries. Still, their league-leading defense, captained by Myles Garrett, has helped the Browns exceed all expectations and secure a playoff spot. 

Garrett is top ten in virtually every major pass-rushing statistical category, and he's made countless game-changing plays in a season where the Browns seemingly have a revolving door at the quarterback position. Garrett’s best game came against my beloved Colts, in which he finished with 7 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a blocked field goal attempt. His stats were undoubtedly the difference in the game, as the Browns won by one point.

BIG MAN TOUCHDOWN OF THE YEAR: John Jenkins, DT, Las Vegas Raiders.

In that aforementioned 63-21 drubbing the Raiders handed the Chargers, they had a few sweet touchdowns. But of the NINE touchdowns they scored in total, none were better or more hilarious than seeing 330-pound defensive tackle John Jenkins pick up a fumble and take it to the house. 

The "big boys" of the NFL hardly get any shine; the media focuses on the handsome quarterbacks and flashy wide receivers while these guys do all the dirty work in the trenches. But in that rare occasion where a hefty defensive lineman has his moment in the spotlight, it's glorious. You can see the entire team run to the end zone to celebrate with Jenkins. 

(Credit to @loganreever/X for this hilarious edit. I recommend watching at 0.75 playback speed.)

Jenkins now has one incredible moment; he can tell his kids about that time he scored a touchdown in front of 60,000+ screaming fans, and can he also collect the first-ever BIG MAN TOUCHDOWN award handed out by Toolshed Publishing Co., if he wants to. 

WORST PLAY OF THE YEAR: Nick Mullens, QB, Minnesota Vikings.

Week 15 was an eventful week for absurd plays, evidently. But unfortunately for Nick Mullens, this is not an award anyone should be eager to claim.

Like many other teams this year, the Vikings have struggled dealing with quarterback injuries and subsequently terrible play from the backups. Nick Mullens was logging his first start of the season in this game against the Bengals, after taking over for a much-worse Josh Dobbs the week prior. 

In his defense, and in defense of backup quarterbacks everywhere, I think there's a natural motivation to make crazy, improbable plays as a backup fighting for your job. Patrick Mahomes doesn't have to worry about taking a bad sack or having a bad series of plays; he'll still have his starting role tomorrow. Mullens, on the other hand, was trying to will this rag-tag Vikings team to the playoffs and simultaneously prove himself as an NFL quarterback.

And so Mullens refused to take a sack as he was being wrestled down just outside the red zone late in the second quarter. Instead, Mullens made a last-ditch effort to get rid of the ball and threw it directly into the face-mask of the guy tackling him, BJ Hill, and effectively committed the first-ever zero-yard interception. Yeesh.

(Credit to user @BillyHeyen/X)

With just one week remaining in the regular season, most of the real NFL Honors are virtually locked up, and so are the Toolshed's less-real honors. But there's still plenty to play for across the league, and I'll give some picks for Week 18.